![]() Lian pointed to “substantial fleet growth coming to market in 20,” but added: “We’ve been playing around with an idea for a bull case: If you don’t see the congestion issues easing before you get these deliveries in 20, you have 15% more capacity waiting in queue in those same ports, and then all the sudden it becomes a port issue, not a shipping issue.” Matthew Cox, CEO of Matson (NYSE: MATX), said last month that he expects trans-Pacific congestion and elevated consumption trends “to remain largely in place through at least the October peak season and elevated demand for our China service for most of the year.”ĭuring a recent analyst panel presented by Capital Link, DNB analyst Jorgen Lian said, “Things are looking stellar and they continue to be looking strong for longer than we thought.” Danaos confirmed that it has extended some charters with start dates as late as April 2023. Alphaliner also reported that MSC extended contracts for several 8,500- to 9,500-TEU ships owned by Danaos (NYSE: DAC), with some only taking effect next year. In the charter market, rates have risen to fresh all-time highs in 2022, with “ a growing trend toward forward fixing far into the future, with some vessels extended or fixed nearly one year before being delivered,” said Alphaliner.Įvidence of industry confidence in 2023: MSC reportedly extended its charter of the 6,493-TEU MSC Bosporus for five years at $50,000 per day, with that extension not even beginning until this December. ![]() “The number of container vessels changing hands reached an all-time high in 2021 after shipowners appeared willing to pay almost any price to secure tonnage,” said Alphaliner, which noted that the growing consensus on longer market strength may “justify purchases with delivery deferred to this year.”Īlphaliner reported that there were 572 container ships sold last year “equivalent to a breathtaking 1.94 million TEUs ,” 26% higher than the prior annual record in 2017, a year when sales were inflated by the spectacular collapse of ocean carrier Hanjin. “A growing consensus now suggests that the current supply chain chaos will last at least throughout 2022.”Ĭonfidence in the shipping boom’s duration has propelled the sale-and-purchase market for container vessels to record levels. “Forecasts for a market correction have been repeatedly kicked down the road,” said Alphaliner on Tuesday. With Lunar New Year 2022 now underway and container freight rates, ship charter rates and port congestion still at or near all-time highs, timing sentiment is turning to 2023. Then it was post-Lunar New Year 2021, then mid-2021, then the end of last year, then post-Lunar New Year 2022. The first predictions for a downturn were for October 2020 after China’s Golden Week holiday. “We have capacity in Oakland that needs to be put to use to help shore up the supply chain and support our economy.The timetable for a container shipping correction keeps receding into the distance, which is either very good news or very bad news, depending upon which side of the market you’re on. “We should see vessel calls and cargo volume recover in October and November,” Brandes said. In some cases, import containers have been trapped for weeks near Los Angeles and Long Beach. Import cargo would be available for pick-up within days of discharge from ships.Vessels arriving at Oakland would be able to find clear sailing without gridlock.Supply-chain congestion is likely to grind on elsewhere such as Los Angeles and Long Beach.The Oakland seaport offered some arguments for cargo diversions from Southern California: ![]() The grim results: September import volume at Oakland sank 13% from September 2020, according to the port. But last month, cargo volume capsized and sank.ĭuring September, 54 vessels stopped in Oakland, marking the lowest vessel call total at the port since 2015. And matters have reached the point that the East Bay seaport is openly calling for shipping companies to shift cargo away from Southern California.Ĭontainerized cargo volume at the Oakland seaport is up 4.2 percent in 2021 compared to 2020. Some Oakland dockhands are idled due to the lack of work. “Now, you might see two or three ships waiting in the Bay. “When it was super busy, you would cross the Bay Bridge and see 15 to 20 cargo ships sitting in the Bay,” Hubbard said. The workers came aboard and the logjam eased at the Oakland seaport - dramatically. To ease the logjams, the East Bay cargo complex orchestrated an agreement involving the union, shipping companies and terminal operators to hire more dockworkers.
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